Canada’s Temporary Resident Population Contracts as Overall Population Growth Slows
Canada’s temporary resident population has experienced a significant decline in 2025, marking a notable shift in the country’s immigration trends. After years of steady growth, this contraction reflects deliberate policy changes by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) aimed at managing immigration-driven population growth.
The most striking trend is the sharp reduction in new temporary resident arrivals. Between January and June 2025, Canada welcomed 88,617 fewer international students and 125,903 fewer foreign workers compared to the same period in 2024. This represents a cumulative decrease of 214,520 new arrivals, signaling a slowdown in one of Canada’s fastest-growing demographic segments.
While the overall temporary resident population increased by 137,851 individuals between January 2024 and June 2025, this figure obscures underlying trends. The population peaked at 2,446,523 individuals in August 2024 but has been declining steadily since then. From June to December 2024, it dropped by 45,910 individuals, and from January to June 2025, it fell further by 49,706 individuals.
The composition of temporary residents has also shifted. Work permit holders now account for 80% of new arrivals, up from 70% in 2024, while study permit holders have seen their share decline sharply. Dual permit holders (those with both work and study permits) decreased modestly, from 344,044 in January 2024 to 312,010 in June 2025.
These changes align with the Canadian government’s 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan, which aims to reduce temporary resident arrivals. The target for 2025 is 673,650 new arrivals, dropping to 516,600 in 2026 before slightly increasing to 543,600 in 2027. Workers and students make up the majority of these targets, with workers accounting for 367,750 in 2025 and students maintaining 305,900 annually through 2027.
The government also aims to reduce the proportion of temporary residents in Canada’s total population to 5% by the end of 2026. In June 2024, temporary residents represented 5.93% of the population, but this dropped to 5.69% by June 2025. This adjustment reflects efforts to ease pressures on public services and housing while balancing economic needs.
However, achieving these targets presents challenges. While the government has tightened controls on student and worker arrivals, asylum claimants remain outside the Immigration Levels Plan, complicating efforts to manage temporary resident flows. Meanwhile, permanent resident admissions continue, with targets of 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026, and 365,000 in 2027, with the economic class dominating admissions.
This dual approach underscores Canada’s strategy to align immigration policies with economic priorities, population growth management, and family reunification goals. As the country navigates this new landscape, the impact of these changes will be closely watched by policymakers, economists, and immigrant communities alike.
Canada’s Temporary Resident Population Contracts as Overall Population Growth Slows
The decline in Canada’s temporary resident population has been accompanied by significant shifts in the composition of these residents. While work permit holders have increased their share of new arrivals, the number of dual permit holders (those holding both work and study permits) has modestly decreased. This trend reflects the government’s efforts to balance the influx of temporary residents while addressing economic and demographic priorities.
The Canadian government’s 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan outlines specific targets for temporary residents, with a focus on reducing arrivals in the short term. For 2025, the target is 673,650 new temporary resident arrivals, which will decrease to 516,600 in 2026 before slightly increasing to 543,600 in 2027. Within these targets, workers and students remain the primary categories, with workers accounting for 367,750 in 2025, dropping to 210,700 in 2026, and then rising to 237,700 in 2027. Students, on the other hand, are expected to maintain a steady annual target of 305,900 throughout the three-year plan.
A key objective of the government’s strategy is to reduce the proportion of temporary residents in Canada’s total population to 5% by the end of 2026. In June 2024, temporary residents represented 5.93% of the population, but by June 2025, this figure had decreased to 5.69%. This adjustment aims to alleviate pressures on public services and housing while ensuring that immigration continues to support economic growth.
Despite these efforts, achieving the government’s targets presents challenges. While controls on student and worker arrivals have been tightened, asylum claimants remain outside the scope of the Immigration Levels Plan, creating complexities in managing temporary resident flows. Additionally, the balance between reducing temporary residents and maintaining permanent resident admissions is critical. The government has set permanent resident targets at 395,000 for 2025, 380,000 for 2026, and 365,000 for 2027, with the economic class accounting for approximately 59%-62% of these admissions.
This dual approach highlights Canada’s strategy to align immigration policies with economic priorities, population growth management, and family reunification goals. As the country navigates this new landscape, the impact of these changes will be closely monitored by policymakers, economists, and immigrant communities alike.
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Conclusion
Canada’s temporary resident population has seen a significant contraction in 2025, driven by policy changes aimed at managing immigration-driven population growth. The decline in new arrivals, particularly among international students and foreign workers, reflects a deliberate shift in immigration strategy. While work permit holders now dominate new arrivals, the overall temporary resident population has decreased steadily since its peak in August 2024. The government’s 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan outlines targets to reduce temporary resident arrivals and stabilize their proportion in the total population, aiming to alleviate pressures on public services and housing while supporting economic needs. However, challenges remain, particularly in balancing temporary and permanent resident flows, as asylum claimants and permanent resident admissions continue to influence the immigration landscape. As Canada navigates this new policy framework, the impact on economic growth, population dynamics, and immigrant communities will be closely monitored.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. Why has Canada’s temporary resident population declined in 2025?
The decline is primarily due to policy changes by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) aimed at reducing immigration-driven population growth. These changes include tighter controls on student and worker arrivals, aligning with the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan.
2. What are the key targets of Canada’s 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan for temporary residents?
The plan sets targets of 673,650 new temporary resident arrivals in 2025, dropping to 516,600 in 2026, and slightly increasing to 543,600 in 2027. Workers and students make up the majority of these targets.
3. How has the composition of temporary residents in Canada changed?
Work permit holders now account for 80% of new arrivals, up from 70% in 2024, while study permit holders have seen their share decline. Dual permit holders have also decreased modestly, from 344,044 in January 2024 to 312,010 in June 2025.
4. What is the government’s goal for the proportion of temporary residents in Canada’s population?
The government aims to reduce the proportion of temporary residents to 5% of Canada’s total population by the end of 2026. In June 2025, temporary residents represented 5.69% of the population, down from 5.93% in June 2024.
5. How are permanent resident admissions affected by these changes?
Permanent resident admissions continue with targets of 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026, and 365,000 in 2027. The economic class dominates these admissions, accounting for approximately 59%-62% of total admissions.
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